Labour Isn't Winning

A YouGov poll that showed -18% approval for the Government has sent many Labourites into rapture. Sure, it’s good that people are seemingly taking issue with the Government’s indiscriminate, ideology-inspired cuts. But we need to take this with a pinch of salt the size of which would ensure the whole of the M25 doesn’t freeze over ever again.

Read between the lines. In the same poll, YouGov showed that 40% still said they would vote Conservative, with 43% saying they’d vote Labour and 8%, apparently those living under rocks, still vouching for the LibDems. Does it really make sense that, despite a -18% Government approval rating, 40% would still vote for the main party in that Government?

Read a bit further. In an IPSOS poll this week, David Cameron received +4% approval to Nick Clegg’s -12%. Ed Miliband, Labour Party leader, received an approval of +4%; but a whopping 30% gave “Don’t Know” as an answer when asked if they were satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed was doing his job as leader of the party. To show how big that figure is, Cameron and Clegg received 8% and 11% "Don't Knows" respectively. ComRes showed a worse picture with Ed’s approval at a lowly -16%, very similar to aforementioned Government approval rating that Labourites have been gushing over. Even in that poll, a massive 50% said they “Don’t Know” if Ed is turning out to be a good leader of the Labour Party. Nick Clegg had a dire -23% approval rating in the ComRes poll, with the Prime Minister on just -2%.

We know that LibDem polling has plummeted. ComRes had them at 23% in the middle of June. Their drop to 8% in the latest YouGov poll shows, Keir thinks, that the Government approval rating of -18% is largely due to anti-LibDem sentiment; not anti-Tory sentiment.

Labour isn’t winning. The Tories are. Government approval may be sinking, but their polling is stable. And we also now have the reason why we do need to act fast, contrary to what many Labourites would argue. Though Keir doubts he would or could, if Uncle Vince pressed his big red nuclear button, we would not win a snap election. In all likelihood, the Tories would win a majority as Labour are yet to propose an alternative, and the leader’s ratings are not good enough to carry the party in that situation. Now Keir doesn't suddenly think Cable has developed some fortitude and would actually be able to do that, but the point here is that this Coalition is fragile and we need to be ready if they capitulate.

It's not all gloom though. The amount of “Don’t Knows” in the questions about Ed’s leadership shows there is a vacuum to exploit that would not only make that Government approval sink further, but would make Labour’s polling percentage grow at the expense of the Tories; the real enemy. Labour MPs have been doing a sterling job on certain issues. Stella Creasy's campaign against legal loan sharks is the Labour Party as it should be. Jim Murphy's excellent use of the internet and his sterling work with genuine new ideas on Defence is offering credible plans. Bob Ainsworth's call for a new way of looking at drugs policy is laudable if only for his suggestion that we have an intelligent debate. And Ed Balls and Andy Burnham continue to offer stern opposition to their two Cabinet rivals across the dispatch box. Both are expertly exposing two of the most ideologically-driven Tories in the business.

But, on the whole, people don't vote based on their impression of Shadow Cabinet members. They look to the Leader. So now, yes now, nearly 3 months after taking up the post of Leader, Ed Miliband must start converting the “Don’t Knows”.

LetUsFaceTheFuture.

Ed's Getting Comfortable

One of the big catchphrases of the leadership campaign was "comfort zone".

David Miliband and his supporters made the veiled suggestion that brother Ed was retreating to the "comfort zone" that Labour always turned to when it lost an election. This was, generally, a "comfort zone" that pandered to the Left and the Unions. Whereas ultimate victor Ed said Labour had to avoid retreating to the New Labour "comfort zone"; something which was perceived as an attack on older brother David due to his big part in the New Labour project and his open pride at the achievements of the past 13 years.

Confused? You're forgiven.

Anyway, all this seems to have changed.

During the leadership campaign, new leader Ed said he would go on marches against the cuts whilst brother David said that whilst he supports marches, he wouldn't guarantee his presence at them. Ed's had a change of heart now. This is a good move. Any potential Prime Minister should not be lending such outward support to this sort of action; like it or not, it just doesn't fit the political climate we live in.

Ed also said New Labour was dead. However today he has told the CBI that he thinks New Labour got it right on wealth creation and business. "...we intend to carry forward all of these New Labour insights".

Keir, for one, is glad that Mr. Miliband has realised the strengths that the party had during the time when we won 3 straight General Elections. We needed to elect a strong leader, and part of good leadership, surely, is being able to change your mind, realise what is best and not be too proud and too stubborn to run with it.

His Shadow Cabinet is a broad church encompassing the New Labour breed as well as the much vaunted "new generation" and it seems as though he is listening and developing the philosophy which our party needs to take forward to win the next election.

LetUsFaceTheFuture.

Ed's Defining Week

IPSOS released their political summary today. Frankly, it does not make for good reading.

The top-line of voter intention isn't terrible for Labour. Though 36% isn't amazing, we are only 3% behind the Conservatives.

However there is a lot to worry about. As Peter Kellner said recently, YouGov polling has shown that Ed Miliband's election to the leadership has produced little, if any, bounce in popularity for Labour. This is the worst bounce created by a new leader since 1955.

In addition to this, the IPSOS poll shows that Ed himself has 41% approval for the way he is doing his job compared to 45% approval for Nick Clegg. This is quite a stunning statistic. Clegg has been widely discredited for backtracking on LibDem promises on tuition fees as well as a whole host of other policies. Granted, Clegg has a +5% net satisfaction rate compared to Ed's +19%. But it is still worrying. David Cameron, on the other hand, is riding into the sunset with a +15% rate of net satisfaction and 52% approval for how he is doing his job.

More worrying statistics come later in the survey as people were asked about party competence over the economy. From March until October this year, Labour's rating has decreased 1%. Just 25% now see Labour as having the best policies on the economy. What makes this even more alarming is that 38% see the Conservatives as having the best policies on the economy now whereas only 29% said the same thing in March. As an article on ProgressOnline helped to point out earlier this month, economic competency is going to be absolutely critical for Labour over the next few years.

For this reason, tomorrow and the week ahead will make up Ed Miliband's defining week. If Labour does not provide a credible response and alternative to the Comprehensive Spending Review this week, the 25% of people thinking we have the best economic policies will plummet further. As the aforementioned ProgressOnline piece states, people believe the cuts will help us in the long-term. So what will our response be?

Without an alternative, we can forget about Government for a very long time.

LetUsFaceTheFuture.

Daily Mail gets its priorities right

Does it criticise Ed Miliband because of his reliance on the unions to secure victory? No. Does it criticise him on his comparative inexperience compared with his brother? No. Does it criticise him for his involvement in the 2010 manifesto? No. Does it criticise him because a survey of Labour rank and file saw his brother as the superior candidate in the leadership race and a PM in waiting? Ummmm, No.

So what then?

Ohhhhh.

It's Ed

Ed Balls is in trouble...

With the rumours swirling last week that it was Ed Balls who had been briefing that Andy Burnham might be on the way out of the leadership contest to avoid the ignominy of finishing last, Keir took particular interest in the latest round of supporting nominations, not least because it gave him the first summary of the state of the race he'd had for a while.

Keir's opinion of Ed Balls isn't that great. He has all the drawbacks of Gordon Brown (personal unpopularity not least amongst them) without any of the perceived advantages. While the media have been crowing that maybe it is Balls with the momentum after his opposition to VAT rise and advantage he has derived from the totally self inflicted wounds of Michael Gove, the figures really do show a different story.

More scientific polling done for the Daily Telegraph reinforces this. (With the usual caveats re: accuracy of AV polls)

Balls is for all intents and purposes last.

Mili's Message

Upon hearing Ed Miliband’s impassioned pitch for our support for his leadership bid, I was greatly and pleasantly surprised. This is a guy who I built up a lot of faith in pre-Copenhagen ’09, only to be disappointed and deflated by the eventual outcome. As a result, I felt Ed had blown his first chance of the political “big time”, though I wasn’t by any means judging him as anything other than the brilliant politician he remained. He then did a...well...decent job, with the manifesto. I must say, when I received my copy of “A Future Fair For All”, I was slightly disappointed with the style (compared to the Conservatives’ “Invitation To Join The Government Of Britain”, it was a poor design) but also with the content to a degree. It should have been bolder and it should have had a clearer direction and aim. In addition, big brother David Miliband was clearly becoming a well-respected politician on the world stage, with Hillary Clinton appearing to wish she could role-play with David in a Clinton-Lewinsky scenario.

When David stated his intention to run last week, I was fully behind him immediately. However, Ed’s speech to the Fabian Conference was what the enthusiasts could call a “game changer”. I had to admit to myself that since I began supporting the party, no message has struck such a chord with me. Ed’s message that we need to reconnect with our core and re-embrace our idealism is, for want of a less pathetic word, beautiful! As much as the media has tried to fix candidates into the Brownite-Blairite categories, Ed’s direction is clearly neither. The categories have been made redundant. After 13 years in government we don’t need major surgery, we just need to remember, as a party, what we stand for, who we stand for and how we work for people.

He also said things that we just need to accept. Immigration, he told us, is a class issue. That may sound odd, but those of us who campaigned in less affluent parts of the country during this campaign will understand totally. In addition, though I can’t remember the exact poll, an Angus Reid poll in the run up to the election showed that immigration was a more important issue to the lower social classes. Of course, it’s easier to say things like this now we’re back in Opposition, but they still need to be said.

The main thing, though, that resonated with me was how Ed said we need to involve everyone, more. Members, MPs, councillors, trade unions, Fabians and constituents; we all need to be in on the discussion about where we go from here. Now, I don’t know how he plans to do this. As one fellow blogger wrote recently, this could involve somehow making constituency parties a more attractive entity. The scope for communication with everyone the party seeks to serve and help and the means with which to do it are now immense; far, far greater than they were in 1997. It is only Labour that can utilise this ability to communicate with the masses to the advantage of all. Simply because Labour’s idealism, as it was in the days of Bevan and Attlee, is the only political idealism that is truly fair for everyone in this country.

My rash decision to back David Miliband may still be vindicated when he announces his full intentions and plans. But Ed Miliband has shown his hand in emphatic style and very few other candidates will be able to disagree with the main sentiment of his bid.

LetUsFaceTheFuture.