
More polling from the lovely people at IPSOS. And you know how Keir loves giving his view on what it all means.
"I am an agitator. My work has consisted of trying to stir up a divine discontent with wrong"
Pickles, who has declared war on waste in the public sector, also spent £256.64 of taxpayers money hanging a new print of a photo of the Queen in his office reception.
Child benefit is to be axed for higher-rate taxpayers from 2013, Chancellor George Osborne has announced.He told the Conservative conference the "tough but fair" move - affecting couples where one parent earns about £44,000 - would save £1bn a year.Family One: Mr & Mrs Smith.
Ed Balls tried to create some more of his artificial dividing lines by asserting that the Tories would abolish universal child benefit. I responded that this was utter tripe.HT to Sunder Katwala in the comments section of Daley's post on the policy.
Mr Cameron started his speech by saying problems were "even worse than we thought"Keir thought he remembered something like this though...
Conservatives' confidence to talk honestly about cuts should stem from three other “c” words: context, character and credibility...Britain will have the biggest budget deficit of any G20 country...Britain faces losing its “triple A” international credit rating because of the prospect that our national debt could exceed our national income
Fitch Ratings cut Spain's credit rating Friday, saying its government's efforts to reduce debt would weigh down economic growth.
The ratings agency cut the country's rating one notch from AAA to AA plus, saying Zapatero's efforts to close the budget deficit "will materially reduce the rate of growth of the Spanish economy over the medium term".
Mr Brown said the Conservatives' economic policies would do "enormous damage to the economy and make sure the recovery was put at risk by taking money out of the economy now.
Is there something of the Lee Harvey Oswald about the Liberal Democrats?
I think the analogy fits. You know how the theory goes. Triangulated cross-fire: various teams of shooters home in on the target, and one sacrificial lamb. “I’m just a patsy!” as Oswald put it. The gunmen could have been anywhere; the County Records building, the grassy knoll, the Texas School Book Depository. It doesn’t matter. All that matters is that the attention is diverted to the patsy.
And so we have it. The Conservative Party fixed on their target which is, essentially, us. The shots come in from everywhere: Gideon from the Treasury, Cameron from Number 10. Clarke, May and Gove send in their bullets too, attacking all that we have built in the education system and in our advances in equality. If one misses, just like the bullet that missed on Dealey Plaza back in 1963, you can be sure the others will strike us right in the neck or, worse, pretty much decapitate us. If the abolition of the Future Jobs Fund doesn’t impact you, the abolition of the Child Trust Fund will. Or even the Whitehall and public sector cuts may take your job from you.
But how do they get away with it? How will the public’s attention be diverted?
Cue: the patsy. “But Clegg sold out on voting reform”... “Cable sold out on his economic policies”.
And there you have it. The media goes wild. “Don’t be stupid”, they’ll say when you speak up about the cuts, “they need to happen.” And then their focus turns to Clegg the sell-out. They show us, sinisterly, how Clegg, Cable and Laws went back on their previous stance. And in ‘63? The focus was on Oswald: his background, pictures of him holding the gun, stories of his defection to the Soviet Union. And the conspiracy theorists, like those of us who bemoan the politically-motivated cuts, are called lunatics, naive and lacking in knowledge.
There are two losers on each side of the analogy. In 1963, John F. Kennedy was one of them; taken away in a coffin along with the hopes of millions of Americans and even millions of people around the world. And Oswald was the other. Oswald was charged, tried and sentenced the minute he was dragged out of a cinema, pleading ignorance and innocence and ended up being shot in cold blood. His demise preceded any chance he had to defend himself. In 2010, we are Kennedy and the Liberal Democrats take up the role of Oswald. We are the ones battered by the cuts and with our futures thrown into uncertainty. The Liberals are hung out to dry with their reputation in tatters. The patsies, the sacrificial lambs, slaughtered by the Conservative Party so that they can get away with their crime. Just like Oswald, they are pictured with their offending weapon: their previous political stance.
They too, will surely be shot down.
Luckily, I think the analogy ends when we consider when the true criminals will be able to be held to account. The final wave of JFK assassination documents are to be released in 2017, some 54 years after the event. I am sure that we can rely on our public at large and the rejuvenated Labour Party to hold the real criminals to account in far less than a tenth of that time.
We can tell the public now that getting rid of the Future Jobs Fund is a politically-motivated attack on people's chances of finding a job in this tumultuous economic climate. And we can ask them how they can fund a Border Police Force but not a Child Trust Fund scheme. We can tell them now that "free schools" is a policy that will only benefit the rich and that socially deprived areas where education does need to improve are not brimming with people who have enough spare time on their hands to start and run a new school; they need the state to provide them with the basic right of a good education. And we can also tell them now that any affronts to our democracy in the form of the proposed 55% rule will not reach the statute book.
LetUsFaceTheFuture.
So the moment we’ve all been waiting for finally arrived with Gideon announcing his spending cuts. This man, the heir to the Osbourne baronetcy of the Anglo-Irish aristocracy, has told poor families, amongst other things, that they can’t have the small offerings from the state when they have children.
Of course, we always knew the cuts were coming. So there is no real shock. This merely confirms the madness that is Gideon’s economics brain. “Let’s get the economy moving”, said his buddy Dave at, seemingly, every single media appearance he did. So Gideon proposes to do that by cutting the Future Jobs Fund. “Unemployed for 6 months? Keep on lookin’, baby”. That’ll get the economy moving alright. Of course, as Alastair Darling has said, the Conservative government hasn’t detailed the impact that this will have on people. The announcements are full of big numbers and political language for now. There is no detail about how many jobs will be lost. Let’s just assume that it will be a lot.
How about a quick, speculative, look at how this could impact voters. Let us imagine that these cuts will have a more detrimental impact on the poor. It’s easy to imagine, really, as it is a Conservative government after all. According to preliminary IPSOS-MORI data, Labour lost masses of voters from the traditional base of the working class. 11% of C2 voters and 8% of DE voters did not “come home to Labour” on May 6th. These are low-income families, probably affected by unemployment. They are likely to benefit from Child Tax Credits and one of their pathways to a job would have been the Future Jobs Fund. If someone has been unemployed for 4 months, they could have got some guaranteed help in two months time. Not anymore. These people will have been disenchanted with Labour given that their situation was showing no signs of getting better. Well, under this Conservative government their situation, if anything, will get worse. Labour has to re-connect with these voters. Margaret Hodge and Andy Burnham offered methods to do this at the recent Progress Conference and Labour campaigners have to learn from both of them, in particular Hodge. And we need to re-connect now. Left Foot Forward editor Will Straw, also at the Progress event, spoke about how we should be out on the doorsteps already, showing people we don’t only care when we need their votes. Straw suggests we utilise the (hopefully) lovely weather of the summer to get back in touch with our voters.
Still, let’s see how it goes and hope that the lower classes don’t get hit as hard as it seems they will.
LetUsFaceTheFuture.
UPDATE: I defer to @martin_oneill for better ironic explanation of the context of Osbourne's cuts.
LetUsFaceTheFuture.
So PM Dave took his first trip to the glorious land where the ancient Britons once dwelled. Having left the homeland recently, I have had the opportunity to “look in” from the outside. Maybe it is sentimentality or my daily craving for my own country, but I fear for Wales under this Tory administration.
I vividly remember the stories from childhood about what Thatcher and her disciples did to our beautiful land and its stoic men and women. Tales of hospital closures, school degradation, stealing milk from young schoolchildren and political war with our working men became like religious tales of Good v Evil. Thatcher was the devil.
Also vivid in my recollection is my horror and anger at turning to page 22 (page 122 on pdf) of my “Invitation to Join the Government of Britain”. In a map of the UK, regions are sized according to their share of the national economy. I could not believe the nerve that the Tories had to point out that Wales and the North East had a 3% and 4% share of the UK economy respectively. It is their fault that these areas have not flourished! And whereas Labour had some policies in their manifesto to provide new industries to create jobs in Wales and the North East, the Tories seem to offer no solution to the problem that they caused when they ruined the lives and prospects of thousands of Welsh families. Indeed, the only promises they make will create huge problems for Wales.
We know that the Tories are going to decimate our public services, but this is even more of a problem in Wales where some 30% of the population are employed in the public sector. The percentage of people employed in public administration, education and health in Wales is roughly 5% higher than the national average (thanks Online Percentage Calculator). This clearly means that Wales will be disproportionately impacted, negatively, by the Tory cuts. I therefore can’t understand the logic of the Tory map showing Wales’ relative lack of productivity and economic prosperity when their policies are just going to drive the country to further ruin. Maybe they were showing off? “Look what we can dooooo with power!”
Will “Thatcher v The Miners” be emulated by “Thatcher’s Bastard Children v Public Sector Unions”? Well, with a strong representative for Wales, maybe we will be okay?
Enter Stage Right: Cheryl Gillan. Our new Secretary of State for Wales is an MP representing a part of the country where all bodily fluids run the colour blue. Born in Cardiff, she left Wales aged 11 and has not represented a single Welsh person’s interest in Parliament since; deciding instead to represent a constituency that would have benefitted immensely from the Welsh work ethic during the Industrial Revolution. So that’s a great start.
LetUsFaceTheFuture.