Labour Must Begin The Fightback In Wales

As we watch painfully whilst our MPs in Westminster sit on the wrong side of the chamber it is easy to think that our party is unable to act. As Osborne, Cameron and the patsies swing their axe through the public finances, our MPs watch in helpless disgust and it is hard to imagine how we can begin our fightback when we look at this scene.

But there is hope. Take a short trip from Westminster, through the West Country and toward the longest river in the country. It will cost you at least £5.50, but as the Severn Bridge becomes Pont Hafren you enter a land where Labour can be reinvigorated again. Travel from the dry, cold ash of Westminster into Wales and you will discover the warm, glowing embers of our party. Far from dead, in Wales we must begin to launch our fightback.

Carwyn Jones, the recently(ish) elected First Minister, is more than prepared to take up the fight to the Conservative government in Westminster. A new, fresh face after the incredible service of Rhodri Morgan, Jones is clearly not fearful of taking Westminster on as his recent reaction to the proposal to close the passport office in Newport shows.

And just this week Welsh Labour chose its new General Secretary. In David Hagendyk, the party in Wales has appointed a young, progressive General Secretary who cares deeply about Wales, her communities and the party's role within them.

And despite the party's dire failure to elect any Welsh MPs to the Shadow Cabinet in Westminster, the Labour benches are littered with Welsh MPs ready and able to take on the Conservative government for every penny they intend to divert from Wales.

Peter Hain will doubtless continue to be a strong voice at the front bench against the English Welsh Secretary.

Huw Irranca-Davies wasted absolutely no time getting stuck into the terrible decision to appoint an English MP as Welsh Secretary. And not only that, but a succinct attack on the lack of air time the said "Welsh" Secretary will get in the Cabinet Committee meetings of this government. He also holds quite an important position considering the potential areas of economic development in Wales. As a Shadow Energy and Climate Minister, it will be part of his job to ensure the government delivers new green industries into Wales. It's not like the Tories will necessarily know where exactly he means though; so Huw may need to provide the likes of Jeremy Hunt with directions. Irranca-Davies is also of a rare breed: a politician with a decent website.

Then there are committed community MPs such as new boy Nick Smith in Blaenau Gwent. Keir was in the area not so long ago to watch David Miliband give the annual speech in his name. Upon speaking to some of the locals, it was clear that Mr. Smith is highly respected in the area and his involvement in the community shows Labour is far from powerless on those streets where Bevan once walked. His participation in the successful "Turn On The Lights" campaign is one example of such action.

Newport East MP Jessica Morden is another seemingly intent on making sure the new government do not leave Wales in the wilderness.

The list goes on: from seasoned veterans like Alun Michael to the newly elected Susan Jones. We've even got the youngest councillor in Wales, with 19-year-old Luke Bouchard recently elected in Treherbert following a 10% swing from Plaid.

And, in true Welsh tradition, a poet! Chris Bryant's poem however, has a very serious point that should not be missed.

Far from navel-gazing, the party in Wales is looking outward and trying to find ways to bring our communities together and engage more people than just the same, committed members who turn out for us in whatever the volatile Welsh elements throw in front of them. Keir has wind of an event in Cardiff as soon as this weekend where members will be discussing how they engage with the people in our communities.

As Keir has commented countless times before, Wales is directly in the firing line of this government. We all know what they are doing is wrong, but we must be clear about one thing. As Mr. Miliband noted in the aforementioned speech, this government is "weak in principle, but sure of purpose."

"Weak in principle, but sure of purpose"

Combined with this, and another thing Keir has pointed out before, is the fact that the public, for now, are going along with these cuts. Some initial signs are good. Polling for next year's Assembly elections shows Labour up 10 percentage points from 2007 and hitting 40%, with Plaid next on 23%. UK polling is also showing Labour creeping up on the Conservatives and even taking the lead with some pollsters.

But we need more. To fight back, Labour cannot look inward, it must use what power it has and it must get back into the communities throughout this country to reignite the flames from the embers left over after May's election and build more of that power.

And that must start in Wales.

LetUsFaceTheFuture.

Ed's Getting Comfortable

One of the big catchphrases of the leadership campaign was "comfort zone".

David Miliband and his supporters made the veiled suggestion that brother Ed was retreating to the "comfort zone" that Labour always turned to when it lost an election. This was, generally, a "comfort zone" that pandered to the Left and the Unions. Whereas ultimate victor Ed said Labour had to avoid retreating to the New Labour "comfort zone"; something which was perceived as an attack on older brother David due to his big part in the New Labour project and his open pride at the achievements of the past 13 years.

Confused? You're forgiven.

Anyway, all this seems to have changed.

During the leadership campaign, new leader Ed said he would go on marches against the cuts whilst brother David said that whilst he supports marches, he wouldn't guarantee his presence at them. Ed's had a change of heart now. This is a good move. Any potential Prime Minister should not be lending such outward support to this sort of action; like it or not, it just doesn't fit the political climate we live in.

Ed also said New Labour was dead. However today he has told the CBI that he thinks New Labour got it right on wealth creation and business. "...we intend to carry forward all of these New Labour insights".

Keir, for one, is glad that Mr. Miliband has realised the strengths that the party had during the time when we won 3 straight General Elections. We needed to elect a strong leader, and part of good leadership, surely, is being able to change your mind, realise what is best and not be too proud and too stubborn to run with it.

His Shadow Cabinet is a broad church encompassing the New Labour breed as well as the much vaunted "new generation" and it seems as though he is listening and developing the philosophy which our party needs to take forward to win the next election.

LetUsFaceTheFuture.

Ed's Defining Week

IPSOS released their political summary today. Frankly, it does not make for good reading.

The top-line of voter intention isn't terrible for Labour. Though 36% isn't amazing, we are only 3% behind the Conservatives.

However there is a lot to worry about. As Peter Kellner said recently, YouGov polling has shown that Ed Miliband's election to the leadership has produced little, if any, bounce in popularity for Labour. This is the worst bounce created by a new leader since 1955.

In addition to this, the IPSOS poll shows that Ed himself has 41% approval for the way he is doing his job compared to 45% approval for Nick Clegg. This is quite a stunning statistic. Clegg has been widely discredited for backtracking on LibDem promises on tuition fees as well as a whole host of other policies. Granted, Clegg has a +5% net satisfaction rate compared to Ed's +19%. But it is still worrying. David Cameron, on the other hand, is riding into the sunset with a +15% rate of net satisfaction and 52% approval for how he is doing his job.

More worrying statistics come later in the survey as people were asked about party competence over the economy. From March until October this year, Labour's rating has decreased 1%. Just 25% now see Labour as having the best policies on the economy. What makes this even more alarming is that 38% see the Conservatives as having the best policies on the economy now whereas only 29% said the same thing in March. As an article on ProgressOnline helped to point out earlier this month, economic competency is going to be absolutely critical for Labour over the next few years.

For this reason, tomorrow and the week ahead will make up Ed Miliband's defining week. If Labour does not provide a credible response and alternative to the Comprehensive Spending Review this week, the 25% of people thinking we have the best economic policies will plummet further. As the aforementioned ProgressOnline piece states, people believe the cuts will help us in the long-term. So what will our response be?

Without an alternative, we can forget about Government for a very long time.

LetUsFaceTheFuture.

Frank Field, Labour?

There was an understandable furore when Frank Field accepted a position as a 'Czar' in the Coalition government, especially given his criticisms of the Labour government previously, and oft repeated rumours that he was considering jumping ship.

Keir spotted this on Michael Crick's 'esoteric' blog (his words, not Keirs)

Nick Clegg was in the chair, and was joined by his party colleague, the Children's Minister Sarah Teather. Among the Conservatives in attendance were David Willetts and the Economic Secretary Justine Greening. But also at the Cabinet table were the Labour MP Frank Field and his colleague from Nottingham, Graham Allen.

Keir, digging up something from the darkest recesses of his mind did a bit of Google fu. Ah, this Frank Field. Does he mention which party he is from there at all? Nope. Not once. Compare that with friend of the blog (and a must for Shadow Cabinet), Huw Irranca Davies's effort, which while admittedly slightly rougher leaves you into no doubt of his affiliation.

Now we have a leader and we can say in one unified voice that the worst Labour government is better than the best Tory government, Frank Field needs to put up or shut up. Which side is his bread buttered? If not, Keir for one would certainly support a nomination challenge come the next election.

Irony?

He will have many challenges ahead in these next few days, but if he wants to be taken seriously, the first thing he's got to do is own up to his role in creating the mess that Britain is in and tell us what he'd do to fix it...Now is the time for Mr Miliband to tell us what he'd do instead. He promised us a Labour spending plan before the spending review, now we'd all like to see it....

The new Labour leader now has a clear choice. He can either serve the national interest by joining with us and the Liberal Democrats and set out how he would cut the deficit...The fact that Ed Miliband owes his position to the votes of the unions does not bode well. At the moment this looks like a great leap backwards for the Labour Party.

This is the instant reaction from Sayeeda Warsi to the Labour leadership result. Obviously Cameron is staying above the petty political fray, and letting Warsi off the lead. Keir finds it rather ironic that Co-Chair of the Conservative Party in her initial reaction quote to Ed Miliband's election said these things, especially when the following are true.

• David Cameron refused to spell out where and when cuts would be made to front line services before the election from opposition. So why do they expect Ed to do so four years from an election?
• At a risk of rehashing old arguments, a coalition government doesn't exactly have a popular mandate, either.
• Warsi is a fine one to talk on the legitimacy of Miliband's election based on his union support. Especially as she has never faced election. Let me paraphrase: The fact that Sayeeda Warsi owes her position to the whim of David Cameron...

It's Ed

1,000 People Ignored

Following on from Keir's trip to the Movement for Change National Assembly on August 30th, a quick note to express disgust at the media coverage over the last two days.

How an event that brought together 1,000 people from all over the nation to express determination to strengthen our movement can be overshadowed by one comment from a man who was at the top of the party during a time when it left many members behind is beyond me.

Peter Mandelson did some amazing things for our party, and Keir respects and admires him greatly. And maybe top-down power was needed at the time. But our movement is finding it's meaning again and he should step aside. The future is here and he is well and truly the past.

It's an utter disgrace that 1,000 grassroots members were ignored by apparently "progressive" newspapers and, might I add, blogs. Check the posts on Liberal Conspiracy on the 30th and 31st August. Sunny Hundal tries to make himself out to be a progressive, liberal, bottom-up-power kind of guy. Yet on a day when 1,000 grassroots Labour people turn up to an event to hear each other speak much more than they hear politicians speak, he fails to mention it once. Hypocrisy, Keir says. No; fucking disgraceful hypocrisy.

The Guardian? That bastion of the centre-left. Liberal, progressive, well-fucking-meaning. Did The Guardian mention how the movement had reconvened after decades of dismantlement? Not a chance. No, the day after the largest event of the Labour leadership campaign The Guardian goes with an article about yet another snidey Mandelson remark about one of the candidates. The 1,000 people just get a paragraph at the bottom. Another disgrace.

There is a saving grace however and it of course comes from that source of all that can be powerful in the movement: the people. A blogpost here and there. A letter to the aforementioned holier-than-thou newspaper (scroll down to Clare Palmer's letter). A tweet. Or two. Or three. Or four. Regardless of the pitiful media coverage of such a momentous event in the context of modern politics, the people who were there are speaking. And as Gordon Brown said on May 3rd, "from one person, one candle, can be lit thousands of candles".

Because of this, because of the people, Keir doesn't think we've heard the last from this movement. Guardian or no fucking Guardian.

LetUsFaceTheFuture.

A Day At The M4C National Assembly

Look at that photo. Just a group of people with common purpose.

Keir attended an event that took him way back yesterday.

Virally promoted on Twitter and driven by personal relationships, not press releases, David Miliband's Movement for Change National Assembly was probably a very new experience for many of the 1,000 people who had gathered. Keir's recent experience of political meetings and gatherings has been far from inspiring. Dull branch meetings in smokey rooms aren't what people join for, yet that's often what we get.

But the National Assembly was so far removed from those meetings. It showed that the people have the ability to turn those meetings on their head and turn politics on its head. The Assembly was by the people in it and for the people in it. It was in their experience; there were unscripted outbreaks of Zimbabwean song and dance, leaders of the allegedly conservative Pakistani community on their feet shouting and hollering, beach balls, flags and technical glitches that caused the Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland to do a small dance followed by a few lines from a popular song. It was fun and it had some small mistakes; that is in people's experience. Passing resolutions and minutes is not. It was also in their experience in other, more serious ways. Testimonies from our Labour people who are going to be affected by the Conservative cuts made the Assembly what it was: moving, powerful, important and a stimulus for continuous action.

"The coalition's cuts could kill me" began one of our people. It was no exaggeration. The gentleman's story could not fail to resonate with any person in the room. And then the story of the young carer: her life, changed at the age of 9 when she had to begin caring for her mother and siblings, reminded the people why they were there and why they are Labour. The Tory cuts to the organisation that helped her through her life and into University will mean people like her will not be given the chance to succeed; all of them, our people.

Finally, the white, working class man with a white, working class family. Some suggest we lost our way and stopped helping this family. That argument is hard to believe after hearing the story of how the NHS helped him provide for his young disabled son. Shoes to help his son walk, shoes that would have cost £100, free on the NHS. "I don't want the world", he continued, explaining that all he wants is the continued chance for his family to live a dignified life.

And at no point in the personal testimony was there the tone of the victim. Dignity and determination flowed from the testimony-givers, who were not professional speakers, as they told their story to the thousand gathered.

So when David Miliband got up to speak the atmosphere, above all other things, was one of solidarity. Keir's fond of a good speech: Obama in the rain, Gordon against the world on May 3rd , JFK's "we all breathe the same air", Dr. King telling the people not to let dogs or water hoses turn them around and Malcolm X scaring the life out of the Establishment all rank among the favourites. Let's be frank: as good as David Miliband is, this was not going to be an MLK speech. But Mr. Miliband did not lecture, he did not preach and he did not patronise. He spoke to each person in the crowd. Of course he was the main event and of course he seemingly has hero status with many people, but he was part of the Assembly like anyone else. He spoke with them, was angry about the same things they were angry about and determined in the same way they were.

The speech was superb. Sadly, Peter Mandelson, as much as Keir respects him, has hijacked the headlines. It is all getting a bit tiring now. So the people's Assembly was not as high on the news agenda. But ask the 1,000 people there what the biggest event that day was and you'd get a different perspective. Ultimately, that is all that matters: the people.

Kudos to Stella Creasy and Willie Bain too. A nice presentation about the birth of our party with lots of pictures of Keir. Stella is clearly going to be a crucial member of the parliamentary party for many years. She spoke on stage about real things in the community that matter to people's everyday lives and also managed to recruit, on stage, a 15-year-old Walthamstow pupil to the party. Adding to the Walthamstow connection was a stunning song and performance from a 14-year-old girl who had seen the effects of violent crime in her community. You can follow her on twitter @mizzcamara. I'd recommend you do; she will be a big deal.

And Jim Murphy...what a guy. Keir can confidently say that he has never seen a Shadow Cabinet member do a little jig and sing in front of 1,000 people.

What's important now is that Labour members make the right choice. David Miliband is the only man who will win us an election. Elect any other candidate and we face a decade in Opposition whilst the Conservatives destroy the lives of the pensioners, the young carers and the working class families: our people.

LetUsFaceTheFuture.

The Continuity Myth

Something's been bugging Keir recently in this arduous Labour leadership race. It is partly due to the fact that the contest hasn't been front page news what with a World Cup and a country having it's head resting uncomfortably on the spending guillotine. The fact is, this Labour leadership campaign hasn't hit the news as heavily as we may have hoped. And this has lead some of the coverage to be lazy and presumptuous. The result of this has been that David Miliband, Keir's chosen candidate, has been portrayed as a "Blairite", continuity candidate. In much of the coverage, Ed Miliband is being presented as the new man for change and renewal. And some are believing it.

Frankly, that's nonsense.

Ed Miliband is a good guy. Sure he let us down a bit at Copenhagen after so much build-up and blamed it on others, but he tried his best. However, let's be clear, he does not represent renewal and change as much as his brother. For all Ed's talk about strengthening the grassroots of the party and engaging new members and people as a whole, he hasn't actually done anything to show his commitment to that. David has.

The Movement for Change, as Keir has previously pointed out, is not just words. Whilst Ed talks, David acts. People throughout the country are being trained to effectively organise within their communities and strengthen the movement as a whole. This is unprecedented for someone who is still merely a leadership candidate to be investing in. If David Miliband was already Labour leader and he'd invested money in something like the Movement for Change, we'd say "great". That he is doing it whilst only a candidate shows this man's love for the party and his dedication to strengthening the movement.

And then onto policies. One thing that really grates on Keir is Ed Miliband's relationship with the living wage. Can we all be clear about something: the living wage is NOT Ed Miliband's idea and not his campaign. London Citizens began this campaign. Boris Johnson and HSBC, among others, adopted the living wage before Ed started piping up about it. And all of the Labour leaders support the spread of the living wage, not just Ed. Yes, that means David too. The only difference is that David isn't trying to pass it off as his own.

But there's more to show that David is anything but "continuity".

Just a few weeks ago, he and Tessa Jowell led the call to make the BBC a co-operative, making it more democratic and more accountable to the public. That is: "make it accountable to the public". Not "make the public run it", for those of you who were thinking "isn't that the Big Society?"

So that's one progressive policy. Want more? Gay marriage. At the end of July, David came out (excuse the pun) in support of full gay marriage. Continuity? Keir thinks not.

And what about the mansion tax? David has supported a 1% tax on homes worth £2m. Left Foot Forward agreed that this is a progressive tax. And, they add, it has the support of voters.

It doesn't stop there: a High Pay Commission and employee representation on the pay committees at top firms. This would, as David himself said, put a check on corporate excesses. Will Straw seemed to like that one.

David also wants to see the party move forward in democratic and progressive terms. Introducing a leadership academy for BAME community members is another of David's policies. Our party needs to continue it's move towards a much more representative membership; in particular the parliamentary party. Investing in this sort of idea will go a long way to aid that. In addition, David's commitment to an elected party chair is one of the main reason's that Keir was convinced to support him. This is an absolute "must-do" policy.

Don't believe the myth. David Miliband is not continuity, not "Blairite". He and his policies are progressive, electable and bold. That's what we need.

LetUsFaceTheFuture.

Ben's All Lonely

Ben needs some company down south.

With that in mind, Keir has been looking into the electoral situation in the South West of England. Other observers have been correct to point out that Labour lost a key demographic in C2 and DE. Liam Byrne MP was the quickest off the mark in a Progress publication shortly after the election. As Byrne pointed out, losing 20% of the C2 vote share is not just a horrible statisticians figure; it's simply wrong. These are the people that our party was formed to serve yet we clearly let them down. Byrne's analysis is excellent and well worth a read. It was watered down recently by Ed Miliband in his essay for the Fabians. He seemed to think he'd stumbled across a revelation but Byrne had already made the case months earlier. Not surprising that Ed's copying and plagiarising though, what with his constant trumpeting of the Living Wage campaign without reference to the fact that it was a campaign started and run by London Citizens. Keir learnt how to reference sources in secondary school.

Anyway, whilst it's correct to point out these issues of our vote share dropping amongst C2s, it's also striking how we got annihilated in the South. This has been talked about by John Denham MP in the weeks proceeding the election. Keir has been particularly interested in this regional divide.

The South-West had 55 seats at this General Election: 5 Labour MPs were returned. The electorate there returned 35 Conservative MPs and 15 LibDem MPs. The biggest vote share that Labour got was 38.6%; and that was in a seat we didn't even win. Keir thinks we can come away with at least 16 at the next election. Optimistic? Maybe not as much as it sounds.

On the 5th May, voting intention polls showed 29% of people were going to vote Liberal Democrat and they ended up with a 23% share of the popular vote on polling day. The latest voting intention polling from YouGov gives them a 13% vote share. Going on their poll swing, that's a 16% drop in support. Take 16% off of their national vote share and you are left with 7%.

Seven per cent.

I know that's not entirely mathematically correct. But all the same, the drop is very big.

And what of Labour? Voting intention polls on May 5th gave us 29% of the vote share and that was indeed accurate on polling day. YouGov at the moment have Labour with 38% of the vote share.

Keir is often suspicious of using national swing and applying it to seats and/or regions but is annoyed when it often translates quite accurately. So let's bite the bullet and use it here.

In Stroud, the Tories won with 40.84% to Labour's 38.6%. The LibDems polled 15.45%. A mere 3% swing from the LibDems to Labour would secure this seat. But the national swing away from the LibDems at the moment is that whopping 16% and the swing towards Labour is at 9%. So that is a must-win seat.

Even further down the scale, we can convert seats. Let's take a trip to Somerset North East. The Tories won with 41.27% here ahead of Labour on 31.67%. The LibDems polled 22.33%. If we can convert 10% of that LibDem share to Labour, we have another seat. And that's before accounting for the inevitable decline in Tory popularity that will be seen from 2011 onwards.

Filton & Bradley Stoke: Tories 40.76%, Labour 26.44%, LibDems 25.25%. Swingy, swingy, swingy.

Swindon South: Tories 41.78%, Labour 34.36%, LibDems 17.63%. LAB GAIN.

And lest we forget the non-voters in these constituencies. A GOTV drive would open up the possibility of even more votes to topple the incumbents. Although turnout was generally good.

Of course, it's not so simple as to be able to just rely on discourse. Labour and our new leader need to make sure we appeal to the people of the region.

Aeronautical industries have grown in Bristol. Labour needs to recognise this. We need policies, similar to the ones in our manifesto, that will encourage growth in these areas. One thing that Keir believes in is re-embracing the vocational ethos of the old polytechnic. This would stimulate these sorts of manufacturing businesses as people won't be coming out of University with solely academic degrees or degrees in things like Business Studies. Instead, they will be able to take targeted, vocational courses that will translate into employment in these sectors that have high potential for growth.

Tourism in places such as Somerset and, more so, Cornwall also need stimulation from the government. Cornwall is way out of our reach when you look at the figures. In St. Ives we got 8.17% and in St. Austell & Newquay we got 7.17%. Dire. These are not places where we have a chance on the face of it. But the Liberal Democrats got just over 42% in both of these seats. Of course, we'd need more than the current national swing to topple them, but the numbers of people that they have betrayed from those constituencies by relinquishing values for power must be huge.

In addition, Labour has a proud tradition of devolution in the last 13 years. It is time to expand on that. An elected Cornish Assembly? Even a South West Assembly? Keir can think of crazier things. Well, you don't need to think of them really; Gideon, IDS and Gove just talk about them all the time.

There is the real possibility to capture the South West. Labour must capitalise.

LetUsFaceTheFuture.

Tick...Tock...Tick...Tock

Keir always thought this government would last no more than two years. The signs are ominous/promising, however you want to look at it.

Simon Hughes' open discontent regarding David Cameron's housing proposals today is a meaningful moment. Hughes has always been held in high regard by liberals and progressives, and with good reason. A member of the Beveridge Group, Hughes' views have always been compatible with progressives in this country. And today he showed he isn't afraid to speak out against a government he knows is doing wrong. Unlike his peers Nick Clegg and Vince Cable, Hughes doesn't seem too fussed about power and doesn't want to sell out his principles. Sadly for him, his party did that on his behalf. Even the things he has said regarding the coalition have been sensible and far-removed from the brown-nosing "I thought this was a good idea all along" attitude of Deputy Dawg. Hughes is right, of course. He is right when he says that the point of social housing is to provide security. Being in social housing means, as he said:

"You know you can have affordable housing for the rest of your life and for people in many walks of life – out of work, retired, on low incomes – that's fundamentally important."

That is the view of the progressive. And it is diametrically opposed to the view of the Conservative. The Tories are intransigent on issues like this; especially now during a time when they are being smokescreened by the view that all of these cuts are necessary.

In addition to today's disaffection, Hughes also passed comment on Michael Gove's mental free schools plan last month. "A nonsense" is what Hughes said it would be to spend money on free schools that could have been spent improving existing school buildings. And God knows what Hughes thinks of Theresa May's decision to scrap plans to ban domestic abusers from the homes of the victims. I'd forgive him if he was still sitting at home squinting at his screen, wondering whether he is actually reading that story correctly. I'm still confused now as to what is going on inside May's head.

Coalitions collapse over things like this. We all saw what happened in Holland over disagreements on Afghanistan troop numbers. And Belgium's coalition government collapsed over what I think can be deemed an even smaller matter than the housing issue; although the cultural factors in that particular case were complex. Then there was Romania's coalition catastrophe. In all of these cases, the splits were arguably between parties much more closely aligned by ideology than our current coalition.

Though I admire Hughes' defiance, I will wait for him to start voting against things until passing full judgement. He has a lot of respect throughout the party, as shown with his election to Deputy Leader, and therefore should have a lot more influence over the left-wing MPs than Messrs. Clegg, Cable, Alexander and Laws. If he feels this strongly, he could lead a revolt. But I get the feeling that he also wants to be sensible and try to make this odd coalition work.

Still, the possibility is there. It shows how fragile this Government is and it can collapse. What's the relevance? Labour must be ready to fight on the ground whenever the moment comes. Keir still feels this will be before the end of 2012. We need to begin mobilising now. And as soon as our leader is in place, we need to unite and begin the fight; whoever that leader is. Let's be clear though: that leader has to be the Member for South Shields in order to give us the greatest chance of winning.

LetUsFaceTheFuture.

Ed Balls is in trouble...

With the rumours swirling last week that it was Ed Balls who had been briefing that Andy Burnham might be on the way out of the leadership contest to avoid the ignominy of finishing last, Keir took particular interest in the latest round of supporting nominations, not least because it gave him the first summary of the state of the race he'd had for a while.

Keir's opinion of Ed Balls isn't that great. He has all the drawbacks of Gordon Brown (personal unpopularity not least amongst them) without any of the perceived advantages. While the media have been crowing that maybe it is Balls with the momentum after his opposition to VAT rise and advantage he has derived from the totally self inflicted wounds of Michael Gove, the figures really do show a different story.

More scientific polling done for the Daily Telegraph reinforces this. (With the usual caveats re: accuracy of AV polls)

Balls is for all intents and purposes last.

Keir Is Alive And Well In The Valleys

Today, in the heart of the Valleys where Keir once agitated and organised, David Miliband gave a speech honouring the lessons we can learn from Keir's life and actions as well as speaking of his future hope for our movement, party and country.

The best thing to do is post the link, so the whole speech is here.

From a podium fronted with a yellowed, framed picture of Keir in the Cynon Valley, Miliband spoke to a crowd of ex-pitmen from Penrhiwceiber, unemployed people in their 20's from Aberaron, workers from Mountain Ash and pensioners from Cwmbach. This is a part of the country embedded in so-called "old" Labour values. A part of the country battered and slashed by successive Conservative governments and a part of the country staring directly at the oncoming threat of austere measures that could threaten to destroy them once more. It is also a part of the country that doesn't care much for the collective sympathy of others; a part of the country where people stick together through all of the above and stand sternly in the path of the blue axe.

Furthermore, it is a part of the country where the people have no passive deference to those at the top. There is not much hero worship in this part of the country; maybe except for rugby legends. The only other heroes are the people from their own communities; like the ones who lived and nearly died down the pits. The ones like Keir who dragged life with them, kicking and screaming, when the elite cared not to provide any opportunities to them: the ones who made things for themselves. Politicians certainly are not easily worthy of such hero treatment. Pomp, glitz and spin don't sit with the people in this part of the country and there is no respect for reputation alone. Facebook, Twitter and hashtags don't impress these people. What they want from their politicians is action.

So, when the gathered crowd stood to applaud the speech, as well as the substantial Q & A session, given by David Miliband, you felt it was a big deal. For anyone who thought Miliband could not capture the values and beliefs of the left, centre-left and soft-left of the party, seeing the reaction of this audience proved absolutely otherwise.

LetUsFaceTheFuture.

Sally Bercow and Blairism

Keir loves Sally, he really does, as evinced by the excellently photo shopped picture above. He also loves the way she gets the Tory press's knickers in a twist, "...but, shes, shes a binge drinker, shes, shes, shes, been a naughty girl, shes, shes, shes, too tall" ad infinitum. But, he must use her as an example in discussion of a very strange malaise sweeping certain members of the Labour Party. Some of whom (the lovely Sally not amongst them, obviously), Keir feels, who think that getting involved means a few retweets on Twitter and getting irate now we're in opposition. Where were you at 9pm on Polling Day? Keir knows where he was, and where LetUsFace... was too.

This malaise is centred around this man.

Tony-San looks very, very smug there, as well he might. This is the leader that made Labour electable again. This is the leader that made them a viable, alternative government. This is the man who swept Labour into Downing Street and power with two landslides of epic proportions. This is the leader that while fighting a poorly communicated, politically and publicly unpopular war, he still managed to stuff the Tories so much that even against the most unpopular Prime Minister in history, they still rely on the sandal wearing, muesli munching "...in the national interest" Liberals signing their own death warrants to prop them up.

But his success is not only measured electorally. This is the man that dragged Britain out of the doldrums and into the bright, shining uplands of the 21st Century. This is the man that reformed the NHS, investing in it as never before. This is the man that helped bring peace to Northern Ireland. This is the man that helped bring peace to Sierra Leone. This is the man that removed a murderous dictator. This is the man that frankly, realigned British politics so completely that the party of Thatcher are now led by the self described "...heir to Blair."

So what the hell is Sally Bercow, and people with attitudes like this, thinking?

SallyBercow

Night all. Labour tweeps - I ♥ you *all*#evenBlairites. And thx to #fangirls 4 the ♥ lesson#backtohashtagsinthemorningthough

Even Blairites? Oh, OK then, which #leader do you prefer then Sally love? Let us think about the Labour Party's electoral success pre and post Blair. Oh, yes. Harold Wilson? Remember him. Clem Atlee? Ramsey McDonald? Maybe Gordon Brown?

So tell me, do you support the reheated mishmash of policies we fought for last time out? Or maybe the electorally suicidal ones that led to our regular spankings by the Thatch? Keir knows its cool to bash Blair, but come on! Maybe you would prefer to be in opposition forever following wierdy, so called 'left wing' policies and those that advocate them.

Keir's feelings are difficult to sum up really. But ungrateful is one of them. Blairism is popular. Blairism is what got Labour elected, and Blairism is what will get Labour elected again.

While Keir is foaming at the mouth, this is the same sort of people that seem to think "add to the debate" is an essential part of a leadership contest (Yes I am fucking looking at you all you lemmings who endorsed Abbott and McDonnell)

To win, Labour needs to get real. Yes, it's cool to fantasise about your sexy next door neighbour with all her charms: nationalisation of the banks, unilateral nuclear disarmament and the advance of socialism. But fantasy's rarely turn out as good in the flesh. We need the solid, dependable wife. Capitalism with a human face, because that is what the people want, and that is what the country needs. The state blunting the excesses of the market and providing a social safety net.

This wasn't meant to be an endorsement for leader at all. But we don't need Ed Balls, Sally Bercow's chosen candidate. He is the singular most unpopular politician in the UK. We've tried this before, remember. ("But I've met him, he's a really nice guy")It doesn't work. The public don't like him. He's a busted flush.

As stated previously, we don't need to lurch leftwards either, and as much as I like him, we don't need a candidate who so far has only managed to formulate his appeal as being Northern. We need someone with the Everyman ability of Blair, and the only person that comes [very] remotely near to that is David Miliband.

OFCOM states that Sky News is biased, aggressive and Tory

The media regulator Ofcom has dismissed almost 2,800 complaints about Sky News's coverage of the general election.

Viewers had objected to Adam Boulton's treatment of the Lib Dem leader, Nick Clegg, and his on-screen clash with the former Labour spin doctor Alastair Campbell, aas well as Kay Burley's interview with an electoral reformist.

Boulton, the Sky News political editor, attracted 1,787 complaints. A total of 671 viewers complained about an interview between Boulton and Campbell on Monday 10 May. Most of the complainants objected to what they viewed as unprofessional behaviour by Boulton, who appeared to lose his temper after Campbell accused him of being "upset that David Cameron is not prime minister".

"Two well-known personalities from the worlds of politics and journalism were taking part in a debate about a matter of topical and serious concern," said Ofcom. "We considered that although the tone and content of this exchange was unusual, it would not have been beyond the likely expectations of the audience for this channel."

Here.

A Day At The Hustings

Doesn't Andy Burnham look well shady in that photo?!

Anyway, Keir was in attendance at a Labour Leadership Hustings on a typically grey Sunday morning in lovely South Wales. In what was a fantastic turnout of, apparently, over 300 people, members put a range of questions to the leadership contenders.

My brief summary on each candidate, should you be interested, was as follows.

Dianne Abbott was actually really good and got a good response from the Welsh members (and non-Welsh apparently; two of the questions were from English constituents in areas where no hustings are being held). Her passion is clear, even if some of the things she has done and said aren't exactly consistent. What Abbott does have is her voting record, which is a particularly powerful tool in relation to the Iraq war vote. She rightly pointed out that voting against it at the time and constantly speaking out against it is much more noble than changing your mind now. Ed 'n Ed: take note. But other than that, she also does help the debate and makes it a bit wider. Her closing speech was good too.

Ed Balls was much of a muchness. I think his whole campaign has been. Balls is at his best as a street fighter; a guard dog. He will make up an important part of the Opposition front bench, but this man cannot lead the party. At one point he said that Blair and Brown sometimes didn't listen enough, indicating that he would move the party away from the 13 years in which we followed Michels' "iron law of oligarchy." Very doubtful.

The other Ed (you know, David's brother) seemed to start the debate very well, with members responding well to his ideas on how to re-structure the party. But he seemed to fade out. His closing speech was very good until he said, "I'll finish with a pledge...I will not leave the party behind". Didn't quite get that.

Andy Burnham, who has already earned himself the "dark horse" tag, seemed good enough. I admire Burnham's speaking ability and think he will be a hugely important asset for the party for many years. He also had some good things to say, not least when he spoke about the National Care Service which I, like he, believe will be the next major step in health care in this country. It is something I hope he really keeps working on. Burnham's answer to the question about his proudest moment was also quite good. He talked about the Hillsborough disaster and it was clearly something close to his heart. He got a loud cheer when he expressed his disgust about Jeremy Hunt's absurdly ill-advised comments recently. And an even louder one for his comments about selective education, where he said he opposed it with every bone in his body.

You know where this is going, right?

Abbott was good, Burnham was very good, even Balls ticked some of my boxes. But there was one clear difference between the aforementioned candidates and the fifth one. There was only one Prime Minister sitting before the gathered Welsh comrades. As Huw Irranca-Davies MP correctly pointed out afterwards, only one of the 5 candidates genuinely scares the Tories and Cameron. Only one has a proven record of passing innovative, sometimes radical, reforms. Only one of the candidates has started doing the things they say they will do already. Only one cares about the party and it's ideals so much that he is investing money into things that will benefit the party, whoever wins this election. Only one can combine his anger and passion with cutting, constructive argument. If David Miliband wins this leadership election, Labour will be back in power by 2015. Led by a man who knows that the machine is not more important than the movement, the renewal of the party could be such that the Conservatives again have to sit in the wings, trying to change their image and trying to capture the Holy Grail that is the centre-ground voters again. Labour does not have to change it's values or it's image. Our values, unlike those of the Conservatives, will always remain the same. But the restructuring of power in the party that is being carried out already by David Miliband will get Labour back to where it was as the party of the people and by the people. One dodgy joke aside, Miliband was the clear star of the show. At no point was this clearer than when he gave his foreign policy comments that cut through the populist and slightly inexperienced answers that his opponents gave. Having been asked a question about the Israel-Palestine situation, a few of the other candidates said that the answer lay in standing up to the USA when necessary. Miliband disagreed. The situation would only be sorted, he said, when the UK and others engage the whole Arab world in this problem. It was an answer of a man who understands the world.

LetUsFaceTheFuture

We Don't Just Want Signatures

Whilst I totally welcome the influx of Labour Party members since the General Election, something about it still irritates me and also makes me curious about the nature of the political being in the United Kingdom.

This view doesn't represent the view of any party members I have spoken to, it is merely my own view. I have had this nagging feeling about the new members since the day after the election when it became apparent that people were joining at an unusually high rate, but reading a recent article on Liberal Conspiracy urged me to articulate my irritation.

And what proceeds from that urge is something like as follows.

The article, posted by Septicisle, explains what I think is the case for many people. They could not join, and maybe even could not support, Labour whilst it was in government, but now Labour is out and now we are faced with the Tory cuts these people feel the desire or need to join Labour. Let me be clear: new members are always a good thing in my opinion. Always. They provide the party with crucial funds, political legitimacy, a more democratic nature and a base of workers and volunteers. So join, join, join.

However, I can’t help but feel the need to ask the 20,000 or whatever people who have joined since May 6^th,

“Where were you when we needed you?”

Septicisle says,

“While in government, there was never the slightest possibility that I could have justified to myself being a member of the Labour party”.

He also says he is, “...a stereotypically angry leftie”. However, I think Septicisle, like many thousands of others, needs to face up to something. Many of the real “angry lefties” in history, the ones we so love, took a disliking to a certain type of political being. From my extensive studying of Che Guevara, I know he took a particularly dim view of this type of political being. It is also the type of political being that is opposed to the progressive political being. This type of political being is the reactionary.

The reactionary is a useless political being at best; a dangerous one at worst. The reactionary supports every piece of public spending from 2005 to 2008 that a government carries out, but then changes its tone in 2009 when a global recession takes a grip on the world economy. The reactionary campaigns tirelessly against what it calls “regressive” policies put forward by an opposing party on things such as VAT, but then backs that opponent once it sees power can be gained from giving its support.

The reactionary has no ideas or values that it can stand up for. It only has ideas and values that it thinks it opposes.

I will always look upon the reactionary with suspicion. Any progressive should. But, as I said earlier in this post, I always welcome new members. However, I would put a challenge to all new members. Whilst the money you bring to the Labour Party is valued and whilst adding your weight to the membership total is appreciated, what we need now is action. I think the new members who felt the same way as Septicisle need to decide what it is they believe in and what it is they want from politics and from the Labour Party. There is a change building within the party and within the Labour grassroots movement. Far from just signing membership forms, people up and down the country are committing their time and energy to becoming re-engaged. Re-engaged with their communities and re-engaged with the people in their communities who share common values, common beliefs and common ideas about achieving the common good. From each of these people will come more people; friends, family, colleagues and also strangers.

Following on from when Septicisle said he would never have joined Labour whilst it was in government, he says,

“I was never going to be able to have the slightest impact on party policy. In that sense, nothing has changed.”

Wrong.

I put it to the new members, and also Septicisle directly: if you want the chance to act, the chance to not only influence policy but to make changes, then do it. If you want to be a part of a progressive, people-led movement and not merely a reactionary that just opposes without ever being proactive, then the chance is there for you now to learn exactly how. It’s free, it’s widespread and it’s started already.

It was Keir’s way and now it’s going to be our way.

LetUsFaceTheFuture.

It's Time To Agitate Once More

This man is the future. Keir is supporting David Miliband in the Labour Party leadership election.

Not only does Miliband have worldwide credibility, a statesmanlike manner, incredible intelligence and a kind of dorky funniness, but his plans to fundamentally change the way the Labour Party works are an absolute necessity for the party going into the future. Community organising principles were used by Keir as this party began it's life to represent the under-represented. We must use them now for the same reasons and more. There is a civil society waiting to be awakened in a manner conducive to effective action. Bubbling beneath the surface of the level where the decisions get made is a lot of anger and worry and only these techniques and principles can help people form active resistance and create positive change.

David Miliband believes in this too. His dedication to ceding power and ending the days of top-down, centralised power in the party is admirable and worthy of Keir's vote. This dedication is not apparent in candidates such as Ed Balls and Andy Burnham who appear to be happy to stick with the organisational structure as we know it. Also admirable is his promise that those people educated in the community organising techniques as part of his Movement for Change will be passed on to the party should he lose this election. It is this commitment that leads Keir to believe that he really loves the party and, more importantly, all who the party exists to represent.

Bring on the ballot. After considering all of the candidates and more than flirting with some, Keir is proud to be an active part of David Miliband's Movement for Change and his bid to be leader of the Labour Party.

Leadership Roundup

The week of the State Opening of Parliament sees both Milibands safely on the ballot, with Ed Balls surely to join them pretty soon.

Andy Burnham seems becalmed in the teens, while Diane Abbot and John McDonnell have seemingly insurmountable obstacles to reaching 33. For the sake of credibility, Keir hopes that the NEC doesn't relax the rules on nominating numbers.

The second bit of good news for Ed Balls is that Mrs Balls has now nominated him. I'm sure dinner times are more relaxed...

Off the top of his head, Keir thinks there is about 110-120 MPs yet to nominate...

Leadership News

Four bits of news today:

1. Andy Burnham is in: Expected, it was heavily trailed last night. Keir used to be a fan but after reading his article in the Mirror, watching his interview on the Daily Politics, and looking at his odd website placeholder he is not so sure.
2. The nominations period has been extended to 9th June from 27th May, giving prospective candidates more chance to canvas the PLP. This move was supported by McDonnell, Milliband E and the unexpected candidate. Keir struggles to understand why such a tight time-scale was imposed in the first place.
3. Diane Abbott, Britain's first black female MP and Michael Portillo's best friend, has, surprisingly, also got involved. Like McDonnell she is in it for the 'debate'. Keir thinks there is a chance that she could split the anti-New Labour vote with McDonnell and keep them both off the ballot.
4. David Miliband is now up to 32 supporters in the PLP, so is the first candidate to be definitely on the ballot. (He needs one more, but Keir doubts that will be long in coming).

Oh, and look at Ed Balls list of supporters...anyone rather significant missing...?