Friday, 12 February 2010

Poll Latest

Nothing like some cold, hard figures to play with.

The latest Angus Reid poll came a couple of days back. It shows the Tory lead shortening to 13% percentage point with them. This is apparently Labour's best show ever with the online polling company.

The national poll is interesting but is getting predictable. More importantly, I think, is what can be read in the depths of the statistics.

The economy trumped all other issues as being the most important throughout all regions, genders and age groups. It was almost the most important throughout all social classes, but immigration pipped it by 3% in the C2 to E social class group.

This should be a clear indicator as to where the campaigns need to focus. People are genuinely shitting themselves about the economy and how it is affecting them. And rightly so.

It is particularly intriguing when you look at the "If a General Election were held tomorrow, who would you vote for?" results. In the North and in Wales, Labour is suffering. In Wales, 19% said they would vote Labour compared to 31% who said Tory. This is a worrying statistic. The campaign really needs to be effective in Wales. I think complacency is the biggest danger. People know what the Tories have done and probably will do to the economy in Wales, but I can only put this margin down to a lack of purpose on the part of Labour. The North has a slimmer 3% margin between the two parties, but this, again, is a problem. Wales and the North should not be battlegrounds. The Conservative Party is quite simply no good for these parts of the country and the Labour members and PPCs there really need to get to work on explaining what Labour is going to do.

Even the ones who didn't select a party are "leaning" towards the Tories more in the North and are only slightly "leaning" towards Labour in Wales.

The poll also indicates just how important local politics has to be in this campaign, with Gordon Brown's approval ratings at a shockingly low rate. 5% strongly approve of his leadership, 24% moderately approve; the rest disapprove moderately or strongly. In contrast, Cameron's approval levels are quite high.


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